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Arsenal vs Crystal Palace

Wed 03 Mar 2027, 20:00 UTC · Round 28 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Arsenal win: 62.1%

Draw: 19.2%

Crystal Palace win: 18.7%

Predicted: Arsenal

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 54.2%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 60.0%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.47

More corners: Arsenal (79.1% home / 20.9% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Arsenal

Yes

Probability Arsenal wins or draws: 78.0%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Arsenal Clearest lean of the available outcomes (62% vs next-best 19%). (62.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (60.0% model probability) High

Corners Arsenal (more corners) (79.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Arsenal win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (78.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.